By Paul Collier, V. L Elliott, Havard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, Nicholas Sambanis
Civil wars allure less consciousness than foreign wars yet they're changing into more and more universal and usually pass on for years. the place improvement succeeds, international locations develop into steadily more secure from violent clash, making next improvement more straightforward. the place improvement fails nations can turn into trapped in a vicious circle: conflict wrecks the financial system and raises the danger of extra warfare. This new international financial institution coverage learn document demanding situations the idea that civil wars are inevitable and proposes an schedule for international motion.
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Extra resources for Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy (World Bank Policy Research Reports)
Among the cases listed in the table, 60 percent of the cases refer to refugees, 20 percent to IDPs, and 20 percent to residents of the country. Mortality rates were higher after conflict than before. While the rise in adult mortality might be expected to have occurred because of adults’ greater exposure to the risk of combat death, few of these adult deaths are directly combat related. 0 Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (2001). combatants is only a minor component of the overall rise in mortality.
In some situations war in one country directly increases the risk of war in neighboring countries. Chapter 3 discusses how the supply of armaments has sometimes spilled across borders and how rival governments can find themselves financing each other’s rebel movements. Such regional increases in conflict risk are compounded by their effects 34 L E T T H E M F I G H T I T O U T A M O N G T H E M S E LV E S ? on regional military expenditure. A simulation of a regionwide increase of 10 percentage points in the risk of civil war predicts that regional military expenditure would end up rising by around 1 percentage point of GDP after arms race effects.
Even economic policies, political institutions, and political freedom appear to deteriorate. Hence most modern civil wars are not remotely like the 19th century American civil war that ended slavery. Of course, finding some modern civil wars that can reasonably be seen as ushering in social progress is always possible, but these are surely the exceptions. On average, modern civil war has not been a useful force for social change, but has been development in reverse. 32 CHAPTER TWO Let Them Fight It Out Among Themselves?